Oil at $100 and Geopolitical Jitters: Why Energy & Defensives Shined During the March 9-13, 2026 Market Dip

Key Takeaways

• Over the past week, the S&P 500 declined by 1.6%, the Dow fell 2.0%, and the Nasdaq slipped 1.3% amid headline-driven market activity.

• The energy sector emerged as the strongest performer, while utilities and other defensive areas provided stability.

• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices above $100, sparking short-term inflation concerns.

• Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year ending near 4.28%, exerting mild pressure on bonds.

• International markets were hit harder by the oil shock, with average declines of 5–7%.

• Families should consider two actionable steps: revisiting portfolio diversification (including 401k benchmarking) and updating their emergency funds.

The week of March 9–13, 2026, underscored how even robust markets can experience turbulence when global events escalate. Rising tensions in the Middle East disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude prices above $100 per barrel. U.S. equities ended the week moderately lower, though strength in energy and defensive sectors highlighted the importance of a well-diversified financial strategy. At Nexus Wealth Management, our research team analyzed these developments to help families in Missoula and Western Montana focus on their long-term financial goals instead of short-term volatility.

Market Snapshot: A Bumpy Week That Tested Investor Resilience

U.S. equities navigated the week's headlines without significant disruption. The S&P 500 dipped 1.6%, the Dow fell 2.0%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.3%. Despite these losses, the selling remained measured—no panic selling or major market dislocations.

On the fixed-income side, Treasury yields rose as higher oil prices fueled inflation concerns. The 10-year note ended the week at approximately 4.28% (up 15–20 basis points), while the 2-year climbed to around 3.73%. This modest increase in yields translated to slight declines across most bond sectors.

As Vanguard and BlackRock noted in their recent commentary, rising yields can pressure bond prices in the short term but create better opportunities for income-focused investors over time.

International markets faced sharper declines. European, Asian, and emerging-market indexes fell by 5–7% on average, reflecting the greater impact of the oil shock on import-dependent economies. These developments underscore the value of international diversification in balancing risk as part of a comprehensive wealth management strategy.

Bright Spots: Energy's Strength and Steady Labor Trends

Energy was the standout performer of the week. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) gained roughly 2.5%, driven by a sharp rise in West Texas Intermediate crude prices. Major players like ExxonMobil and Chevron posted significant gains, demonstrating the benefits of U.S. energy independence and providing a natural hedge for diversified portfolios.

The labor market also showed resilience. The February ADP private payroll report, released just before the week, revealed an increase of 63,000 jobs, with strength in education, health services, and construction. This data bolstered consumer spending power, helping to support the broader economy.

Defensive sectors added stability. Utilities rose about 0.4%, while healthcare and consumer staples outperformed growth areas. These sectors played their role as market stabilizers, offering a buffer against volatility.

Pressures: The Ripple Effects of the Oil Spike

Geopolitical tensions were the dominant narrative of the week. Escalation in the Middle East disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude prices above $100 per barrel. These price increases raised short-term inflation concerns, prompting some investors to shift toward safer assets.

Growth-oriented and cyclical sectors felt the pressure. Financial services fell by 3.4%, while consumer discretionary and industrial stocks lagged due to concerns about higher energy costs impacting consumer spending. Internationally, Europe and Asia bore the brunt of the oil shock, with their reliance on imports amplifying the impact.

At Nexus Wealth Management, we view these pressures as temporary and a normal part of navigating global markets. History shows that markets have weathered similar geopolitical events, and the U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong.

Sector Performance: Winners and Losers

Top Performers

• Energy (up ~2.5%) – ExxonMobil and Chevron were standout contributors.

• Utilities (up ~0.4%) – Maintained steady demand despite market turbulence.

• Healthcare and consumer staples – Held firm amidst broader market declines.

Underperformers

• Financial services (down ~3.4%) – Sensitive to rising rates and economic uncertainty.

• Consumer discretionary and travel-related stocks – Weighed down by higher fuel costs.

• Tech-heavy growth stocks – Experienced outflows amid a risk-off environment.

These sector rotations highlight the importance of regular portfolio reviews, such as 401k benchmarking, to ensure alignment with long-term financial goals.

Two Key Steps for Your Family's Financial Plan

As we move further into 2026, consider these two straightforward but impactful actions:

1. Reassess Diversification: Review your portfolio's allocation and conduct a 401k benchmarking check. If your investments are heavily weighted toward tech or growth sectors, consider rebalancing to include energy or defensive sectors where appropriate. This can help mitigate short-term volatility while positioning your portfolio for long-term success.

2. Refresh Your Emergency Fund: With rising energy costs, ensure you have 3–6 months of living expenses set aside. A well-funded emergency reserve provides peace of mind and enables you to focus on what matters most: family, career, and building generational wealth.

These simple steps are part of the proactive approach we recommend at Nexus Wealth Management to help our clients feel confident about their financial futures.

About the Author

Robert Montes, lead Portfolio Manager at Nexus Wealth Management, specializes in market analysis, economic trend assessment, and crafting wealth management strategies tailored to client goals. With over 700 households and 1,100+ accounts under management, Robert leads one of Montana's top-rated wealth management teams. Outside of work, he is a dedicated Jiu-Jitsu practitioner and a former Army Ranger.

About Nexus Wealth Management

Nexus Wealth Management is a premier financial advisory firm based in Missoula, Montana, proudly serving individuals, families, and business owners throughout Western Montana. Offering personalized wealth management, retirement planning, and investment strategies, we are committed to delivering unbiased, client-first solutions. Recognized as Montana's top financial advisory firm with over 170 five-star Google reviews, Nexus Wealth Management stands out for our dedication to transparency, education, and long-term success.

Take control of your financial future with Nexus Wealth Management. Visit nexuswealthmanagement.org or reach out to our Missoula office for a no-obligation consultation today.

Video Transcript:

The markets wrapped up a choppy week with some headline-driven pauses — but there were a couple of sectors which showed quiet resilience. In today’s recap, we’ll discuss the energy strength that stood out, the economy’s steady labor signals, and defensive sectors which helped buffer portfolios from last week’s volatility. Let’s jump in.

Hey guys, welcome to this week’s stock market recap! I’m Robert Montes with Nexus Wealth Management in beautiful Missoula Montana, and today we’re breaking down the top 3 things that moved markets both positively and negatively for last week.

So, last week was another choppy one - which honestly is not surprising as the market responded to the ongoing conflict with Iran. We saw The S&P 500 down 1.6%, the Dow down 2.0%, and the Nasdaq down 1.3%.

As far as positive factors last week, these three things are what benefited the market most: First, the energy sector showed strength as oil prices rose. Higher oil prices are basically rocket fuel for the energy sector as each barrel produced brings in a ton of extra revenue. This highlighted the benefits of U.S. energy independence and provided a nice buffer for portfolios holding energy positions. It helped offset some broader pressures and it was a great reminder that not all sectors move the same way, and targeted exposure can add balance during uncertain times. 

Second, private payroll data stayed resilient with solid gains in areas like education and health care. This data reinforced steady job growth signals which keeps consumer spending healthy and gives middle-class households reassurance that the economy is holding up well underneath the surface noise. 

And third, defensive areas like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples held up well despite all the noise in other sectors. This offered a measure of stability and showed that investors weren’t panicking all while keeping the door open for forward progress once the headlines quiet down.

Now, looking at detractors, here are three things that created  pressure in the markets last week: 

First, the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices higher. Now, while this helps the energy sector - it does detract from sectors like transportation, industrials, and consumer discretionary. The good news is that most analysts feel like this is more of a short-term dynamic despite the chop it created last week. This is because the U.S. is the world’s #1 oil producer with a highly diverse supply base and strategic reserves. As such analysts are predicting the shortfall will be made up over the next few months which will help soften higher prices.

Second, the resulting rise in energy costs added some inflation worries. As mentioned, higher oil prices lead to higher energy costs and the potential of higher prices at the gas tank or on groceries and household items.  Yet nothing we’ve seen so far has pointed towards the economy being derailed from the bigger positive picture of economic resilience we’ve seen so far this year.

And third, we saw investors profit taking in growth areas — especially technology and consumer discretionary stocks. Many of these higher-flying names - think Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple - had run up nicely over the past year, so we saw some healthy profit-taking as investors rotated toward more defensive sectors. But again, this was very orderly with no signs of panic, and it didn’t stop the week’s underlying momentum or the long-term upward trends we’ve been seeing.

So guys, that’s what we saw last week in the markets. Let me know what you thought or if I missed anything in the comments below. And if you want to connect with our team regarding your family’s financial plan, don’t hesitate to reach out!