Navigating the Geopolitical Gusts: How Oil Surges and Jobs Jitters Shaped a Choppy Week in the Markets

As we conclude another turbulent week in the financial markets, March 2–6, 2026, served as a clear reminder of how global events can ripple through domestic portfolios. Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove oil prices sharply higher, while a weaker-than-expected jobs report at home added to market uncertainty. Despite these challenges, there were bright spots, particularly in the energy sector and select international markets, offering valuable lessons for personal financial planning and 401(k) strategies. At Nexus Wealth Management, our Missoula-based team analyzed the data in depth, drawing insights from trusted industry sources like Vanguard and Fidelity to provide a well-rounded perspective for our clients across Western Montana.

Key Takeaways:

• Market Performance Overview: The S&P 500 dipped 2%, the Dow fell 3%, and the Nasdaq slid 1.2%. These declines reflect a normal pause amidst geopolitical and economic surprises, with U.S. equities maintaining strong long-term growth potential.

• Positive Drivers: Energy stocks outperformed as oil prices surged, cushioning broader market dips. International markets in Europe and Asia showed relative stability, while commodity price gains, particularly in energy, underscored the importance of asset class diversification.

• Pressure Points: Rising oil prices from Middle East unrest weighed on consumer and industrial stocks. February's jobs report, showing a 92,000 payroll drop, sparked investor caution, while renewed inflation concerns tied to energy costs added to the uncertainty.

• Actionable Insights: Consider diversifying your 401(k) allocations across sectors. Review your emergency funds to ensure financial security during volatility.

The Energy Sector: A Beacon of Resilience

The energy sector stood out as a stabilizing force amid market turbulence. Oil prices soared 25–35% due to supply disruption fears stemming from strikes in Iran, providing a critical offset to broader market declines. Peer analyses from BlackRock and Invesco highlighted how commodity cycles can enhance portfolio stability. Key performers included ExxonMobil (+12%), Chevron (+9%), and Occidental Petroleum (+8%), all benefiting from rising crude prices.

This sector rotation underscores the importance of energy exposure in wealth management strategies. At Nexus, we regularly benchmark 401(k)s to ensure clients maintain balanced portfolios that adapt to sectoral shifts, helping them stay resilient even during global uncertainty.

International Markets: A Source of Stability

While U.S. equities faced headwinds, international markets remained relatively stable. Europe's STOXX Europe 600 fell just 0.5%, buoyed by resilient consumer spending and accommodative policies from the European Central Bank. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1%, supported by strong exports and a weaker yen. These examples highlight the benefits of global diversification, a cornerstone of our financial advisory approach at Nexus Wealth Management.

Incorporating international equities into long-term portfolios can help mitigate U.S.-centric risks. Our clients have seen how even modest allocations to Europe or Asia can smooth returns during periods of domestic market volatility.

Fixed Income: Modest Pressures

Fixed income markets faced mild pressures as inflation concerns resurfaced. U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year note climbing to 4.4%, leading to slight declines in bond prices. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index slipped 0.8%, while high-yield corporate bonds fared better, dipping just 0.3%.

Internationally, fixed income markets proved more stable. European government bonds, such as German Bunds, saw minimal losses, while Asian sovereign bonds remained steady thanks to supportive central bank policies. At Nexus, we integrate these dynamics into comprehensive plans to strike the right balance between growth and income, especially for retirement-focused 401(k) strategies.

+Challenges That Weighed on Markets

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted oil supply chains, driving energy costs higher and pressuring consumer and industrial stocks. Boeing (-6%), Nike (-5%), and Caterpillar (-4%) were among the week's biggest losers.

The February jobs report added to market jitters, with nonfarm payrolls falling by 92,000. This decline, driven by severe winter weather and a major labor strike at Kaiser Permanente, is likely a temporary setback. Despite these challenges, unemployment remains near 4.4%, signaling a fundamentally strong labor market.

Inflation fears tied to surging energy prices further dampened sentiment. However, core inflation metrics remain stable, suggesting these concerns may be short-lived.

Weekly Highlights: Top Performers and Declines

Top Performers (S&P 500 Weekly Gains):

• ExxonMobil: +12% – Supported by oil price rally.

• Chevron: +9% – Strong performance in upstream operations.

• Occidental Petroleum: +8% – Benefited from commodity spikes.

Biggest Losers (S&P 500 Weekly Declines):

• Boeing: -6% – Impacted by rising fuel costs.

• Nike: -5% – Pressured by concerns over consumer spending.

• Caterpillar: -4% – Affected by energy-driven industrial slowdowns.

These trends underscore the importance of diversification, a key focus for our team at Nexus when advising clients on 401(k) allocations and financial planning strategies.

Building Resilience Amid Uncertainty

This week's market movements highlight the importance of proactive adjustments. With markets showing underlying strength despite short-term pauses, now is an excellent time to revisit your portfolio allocations. Adding bonds or international exposure can provide balance, while reviewing emergency funds ensures stability during volatile periods.

At Nexus Wealth Management, we're committed to helping clients navigate these challenges with confidence. Whether you're planning for retirement or managing generational wealth, our team is here to guide you every step of the way.

About the Author:

Robert Montes, lead Portfolio Manager at Nexus Wealth Management, specializes in market analysis and wealth management strategies. His team oversees 1,100+ accounts for over 700 households, making Nexus one of Montana's top-rated firms. Outside the office, Robert is an avid Jiu Jitsu practitioner and a former Army Ranger.

About Nexus Wealth Management:

Nexus Wealth Management, based in Missoula, Montana, serves individuals, families, and businesses across Western Montana with tailored financial planning, retirement strategies, and investment management. Recognized as Montana's top-rated financial advisory firm, Nexus is dedicated to transparency and long-term results. Visit us at nexuswealthmanagement.org to schedule a consultation and take control of your financial future today.

Transcript:

Did your portfolio weather last week’s chop or did inadequate holdings cause your investments to dip harder than they needed to. Today, we’ll unpack what happened last week including the sectors that held strong, the pressures that created pullbacks, and practical takeaways you can use right now to help your family’s investments stay steadier moving forward. Let’s jump in.

Welcome to this week’s stock market recap. I'm Robert Montes with Nexus Wealth Management in beautiful Missoula Montana.

Last week was a choppy one. We saw some resilience early on but, by the end of the week, clear pressures had built. Primarily driven by the U.S. strikes against Iran - we saw the S&P 500 decline 2%, the Dow dip about 3%, and the Nasdaq fall around 1.2%.

As far as positive factors last week, these three things produced some positive momentum: First, energy stocks held up well and even gained ground as oil prices surged due to Middle East tensions — this provided a nice cushion against the broader market declines, helping diversified portfolios stay steadier and showing how sector shifts can offer real protection during uncertain times.

Second, some international markets held firmer in spots like Europe and Asia. This added a layer of resilience, showing that global exposure can help balance U.S.-focused holdings and keep confidence steady for portfolios navigating uncertainty. 

And third, commodity prices spiked notably as investors shifted toward these asset classes amid the volatility — this was driven largely by sharp gains in energy which lifted broader commodity indexes like the CRB which finished the week up around 14%.

But, as mentioned earlier, not everything was unicorns and rainbows last week and here are the top 3 things which created pressure.

First, increased oil prices sparked by the recent strikes in Iran and worries over supply disruptions led to noticeable dips in consumer and industrial stocks. Fears that higher energy costs will squeeze household budgets, raise business expenses, and slow down spending was the biggest contributor to the pullbacks we saw last week. Historically, markets have shown they can adapt pretty quickly to these short-term energy spikes, often shifting toward more resilient areas like energy producers or defensive plays that hold up better - so it’s definitely not time to panic. In fact, these kinds of adjustments often create fresh opportunities once the initial uncertainty starts to fade.

Second, the February jobs report came in weaker than expected, with nonfarm payrolls declining by 92,000 jobs. This was largely due to factors like severe winter weather across multiple states as well as the 30,000 medical professionals strike we saw in healthcare - primarily with Kaiser Permanente.

And third, renewed inflation worries emerged as energy costs climbed sharply from the oil surge, which can feed into broader price pressures and make consumers and businesses a little more cautious in the short term. With that said, these concerns were largely tied to one volatile input which was energy. Meanwhile, other core inflation indicators have continued to trend lower or hold steady in recent months.

So guys, that’s a recap on last week’s choppy market activity. If you found that helpful, make sure you keep an eye out for our upcoming 6 month economic outlook which we’ll post on Wednesday. Otherwise, don’t forget to hit that “like button” and hey, why not subscribe while you’re at it?! Until Wednesday Thank you!